The latest earnings report released by Meituan covers the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 (announced on March 26, 2026). The market is currently focusing on the first quarter earnings report for 2026, which is scheduled to be released on June 1, 2026.
Below is a summary of the key data for the full year and fourth quarter of 2025:
2025 Full-Year Performance Summary
- Revenue: 364.9B RMB, a year-over-year increase of 8%.
- Net Loss: 23.4B RMB (shifting from profit to loss).
- Operating Loss: 17.0B RMB.
- Operating Loss of Core Local Commerce: 6.9B RMB.
- R&D Expenses: 26.0B RMB, a year-over-year increase of 23%.
2025 Fourth Quarter Business Highlights
- Core Local Commerce Performance: The segment recorded an operating loss of approximately 10.0B RMB, which narrowed quarter-over-quarter compared to the third quarter.
- Market Share: Despite intense industry competition, the food delivery business maintained a GTV (Gross Transaction Volume) market share of over 60%.
- New Initiatives Growth: Revenue for the new initiatives segment was 104.0B RMB, a year-over-year increase of 19%. Notably, the international business Keeta achieved positive unit economics (UE) in Hong Kong during the fourth quarter and continues to expand into the Middle East and Brazilian markets.
Market Forecast for 2026 First Quarter
According to consensus analyst estimates, the financial expectations for Meituan in the first quarter of 2026 are as follows:
- Expected Revenue: 91.108B RMB.
- Expected EPS: -1.60 RMB.
I. Fundamental Analysis
- Financial Transition Phase: Although net profit shifted from profit to loss in Q1 2026, operating losses have narrowed significantly by over 10 billion RMB compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2025).
- Core Business Operations: The company has successfully improved the unit economics (UE) of its core local commerce by reducing subsidies for low-ticket-value orders and optimizing operational efficiency.
- Strategic Positioning: Meituan continues to invest heavily in R&D for AI Agents and large language models (accounting for 7.7% of total revenue), and views its international business as a growth engine to mitigate overall losses.
II. Technical Analysis
- Stock Position: The stock price has recently been trading in a historical low range, primarily influenced by market concerns regarding competitive pressure and rumors of personnel adjustments.
- Key Support: The stock price has been hovering near the 70 HKD psychological support level, indicating heavy selling pressure; technically, it remains critical to observe whether this support level can successfully serve as a base.
III. Analyst Perspectives
- Market Price Targets and Sentiment: The average analyst target price is approximately 123.16 HKD, suggesting that the market maintains a positive outlook on its long-term value, with most ratings remaining at “Buy” or “Strong Buy”.
- Earnings Forecasts: While 2026 is expected to be a year of transition for profit recovery with negative full-year EPS projections, market consensus predicts a profit inflection point in 2027, with EPS expected to reach over 5.00 HKD.
- Key Indicators to Watch: Analysts advise closely monitoring the improvement in the company’s “Free Cash Flow (FCF),” as this serves as a core indicator for determining whether the stock price has bottomed out.
Source:
https://www.meituan.com/zh-HK/news/NN260326174005788?source=relativeNews
https://www.futunn.com/hk/stock/03690-HK/earnings
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