Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH / 600519.ss) released its financial report for the first quarter of 2026 on April 24, 2026. Below is a summary of the quarterly results:
Core Financial Metrics
- Operating Revenue: 54.70B, representing a 6.34% year-on-year increase.
- Net Profit Attributable to Shareholders: 27.24B, representing a 1.47% year-on-year increase.
- Non-recurring Net Profit: 27.24B, representing a 1.45% year-on-year increase.
- Basic Earnings Per Share (EPS): 21.76.
Product and Channel Performance
- By Product Category:
- Moutai Liquor: Revenue of 46.01B, up 5.62% year-on-year.
- Series Liquor: Revenue of 7.88B, up 12.22% year-on-year.
- By Sales Channel:
- Direct Sales: Revenue of 29.50B, showing a significant growth of 27.06%.
- Wholesale Agents: Revenue of 24.38B, a decrease of 10.88% year-on-year.
Profitability Analysis
- Gross Margin: 89.76%, down 2.21 percentage points year-on-year. The decline was primarily driven by an increased proportion of lower-margin product mixes.
- Net Profit Margin: 49.80%, down 2.39 percentage points year-on-year.
- Asset Position: As of the end of March 2026, total assets reached 319.92B, a 5.29% increase from the end of 2025; cash and cash equivalents stood at 169.97B.
Key Developments
- Shareholder Returns: As of late April 2026, the company has returned a cumulative 1.52B to investors, repurchasing 1.08M shares, which accounts for 0.0865% of the total share capital.
- Future Outlook: Analysts expect that as the effects of the price hike for Feitian Moutai in late March materialize in subsequent quarters, along with the promotion of direct sales for non-standard products, net profit margins are likely to recover in the second half of 2026.
Based on Kweichow Moutai’s Q1 2026 financial report and market trends, the following key changes this quarter are noteworthy:
Significant Transformation in Sales Channel Structure
The most substantial change this quarter lies in the further expansion of direct sales. Direct sales revenue reached 29.50B, a high year-on-year increase of 27.06%, significantly surpassing wholesale agent channels (24.38B, down 10.88% year-on-year). This indicates the company is strengthening its control over terminal pricing and profits through self-operated channels, such as the “iMoutai” digital platform.
Product Mix Impacting Profit Margins
Despite continued revenue growth, both the gross margin (89.76%) and net profit margin (49.80%) saw a decline of approximately 2 percentage points. This reflects that while driving growth in Series Liquor (up 12.22% year-on-year), the increased proportion of lower-margin products has placed short-term pressure on the overall profit structure.
Price Hike Effect on Core Products
At the end of March 2026, the company raised prices for its core product, “Feitian Moutai.” Although this adjustment occurred late in the first quarter and had a limited direct impact on this period’s revenue, the market expects this move to be the primary driver for margin recovery in Q2 and the second half of the year.
Capital Operations and Shareholder Returns
The company’s share buyback actions in the secondary market were more aggressive this quarter. As of late April, it had cumulatively repurchased 1.08M shares, involving an investment of approximately 1.52B. This level of capital management is relatively rare in Moutai’s history, sending a strong signal that management believes the current stock price is undervalued and is committed to protecting shareholder interests.
Market Supply-Demand and Inventory Management
With the rising proportion of direct sales, the company’s reliance on distributors has decreased. This shift helps mitigate long-term issues of hoarding and speculation in the market. The Q1 data shows that while maintaining its high-end brand positioning, the company is effectively reclaiming profits from the distributor level back to the manufacturer level.
Looking ahead to the development of Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) in the second quarter of 2026, the core growth drivers and potential challenges are primarily concentrated in the following areas:
1. Full Realization of the Core Product Price Hike
The company officially raised the contract and retail prices of its core products starting March 31, 2026:
- Ex-factory Price Adjustment: The contract price for Feitian 53% vol 500ml Moutai was adjusted from 1169 to 1269 (an increase of approximately 8.5%).
- Retail Price Adjustment: The retail price within the self-operated system was slightly increased from 1499 to 1539.Since the first quarter only covered one day of this price hike, the profit contribution from this policy will be fully reflected for the first time in the Q2 financial report, which is expected to effectively support a recovery in gross margins.
2. Drive from Direct Sales and Digital Platforms
The “iMoutai” digital marketing platform has become the main engine for revenue growth. With the Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) proportion already showing high growth of 27% in Q1, the company is expected to continue using this platform in Q2 to launch more high-margin non-standard products (such as Zodiac Moutai and Boutique Moutai), further reclaiming channel profits and filling the gap left by the shrinking traditional wholesale channels.
3. Structural Volume Growth of Series Liquors
Series liquors, such as Moutai 1935, have become a 10B level growth curve for the company. In Q1 2026, series liquors demonstrated a growth of 12.22%, outperforming the core Moutai liquor. In Q2, the company is expected to continue its “product structure optimization” strategy, using series liquors to fill gaps in the business consumption market and expand market coverage.
4. Shareholder Returns and Market Confidence Support
The company has recently implemented rare large-scale share repurchases. As of late April 2026, it had cumulatively repurchased 1.08M shares, investing approximately 1.52B. This capital management model may continue into Q2, helping to stabilize investor confidence in the company’s position as a “value stock” amidst a macro environment and liquor industry with softening demand.
5. Macro Challenges and Demand Adjustments
Despite the positive impact of the price hike, two variables warrant attention:
- Wholesale Price (Bulk Feitian) Volatility: Market reports suggest that wholesale prices in some regions have retreated to the 2400-2500 range, which may limit the space for further product mix optimization.
- Consumption Structure Transformation: Changes in alcohol preferences among the younger generation, along with continued government focus on high-end consumption, mean the company needs to engage in more frequent cross-industry collaborations (such as ice cream and chocolate) to cultivate potential customer bases.
According to market forecasts, Kweichow Moutai’s next financial report is expected to be released on July 30, 2026. At that time, the degree of profitability improvement following the price hike will be the key metric for the market to verify growth momentum.
Based on the latest research reports from institutional brokerages and market consensus, the EPS trend for Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) over the next year is expected to show a steady growth trajectory. Detailed analysis is as follows:
Market Consensus Forecast
According to current average analyst estimates, Kweichow Moutai’s full-year EPS for 2026 is expected to reach a range of 71.50 to 74.20, representing an increase of approximately 12% to 16% compared to 64.10 in 2025.
Core Drivers for EPS Growth
- Full-Year Contribution of the Price Hike: The price hike initiated at the end of March 2026 (approximately an 8.5% increase in ex-factory prices) will see its marginal contribution to profit fully released during the remaining three quarters of 2026, forming a complete annual comparison baseline by Q1 2027.
- Continued Rise in Direct Sales Proportion: The proportion of direct sales revenue is expected to exceed 55% or higher over the next year. Since the net profit per bottle from direct sales channels is significantly higher than that of distributor channels, this structural shift will noticeably boost EPS even if revenue growth remains moderate.
- Accretive Effect of Share Repurchases: The aggressive repurchase program started in early 2026 (with over 1M shares already repurchased), while still small relative to the total share capital, will directly increase earnings per share from the denominator side if the cancellation of repurchased shares continues.
Quarterly EPS Trend Projection
- Q2-Q3 2026: Benefiting from the price hike effect and the Mid-Autumn/National Day holiday season, single-quarter EPS growth rates are expected to outperform the 1.47% seen in Q1, returning to double-digit levels.
- Q4 2026: As a traditional peak season, coupled with the volume growth of non-standard products (such as Zodiac Moutai), the EPS contribution is typically the highest for the year.
- Q1 2027: The company will face the challenge of a high base from 2026, but with consolidated brand power, it is still expected to maintain growth in the high single digits to low double digits.
Potential Downside Risks
- Weak Macro Consumption Power: If demand for business banquets and high-end consumption remains sluggish, it may lead to a slowdown in sales volume growth, suppressing EPS performance.
- Correlation Between Wholesale Prices and Stock Price: If the market wholesale price falls below the psychological threshold of 2300, it may trigger market doubts regarding the sustainability of the company’s future EPS growth, thereby affecting the valuation multiple (PE).
Data Summary (Estimates)
| Fiscal Year | Estimated EPS | Year-on-Year (YoY) |
| 2025 (Actual) | 64.10 | 19.2% |
| 2026 (Estimate) | 72.85 | 13.6% |
| 2027 (Estimate) | 81.40 | 11.7% |
Source:
- https://www.investing.com/equities/moutai-earnings
- https://news.futunn.com/en/post/72475078/kweichow-maotai-600519-a-high-quality-start-to-q1-with
- https://www.moomoo.com/stock/600519-SH/news
- https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H3_AP202604091821085016_1.pdf?1775747987000.pdf
- https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/aigc/stockfs/2026-04-25/doc-inhvrtiu2980603.shtml
- https://choice.eastmoney.com/data/stock/estimate/600519.SH
- https://www.wind.com.cn
Back to Kweichow Moutai page