Guotai Junan Securities - 2026Q1 - titanstockanalysis.com

Key Changes This Quarter (Quantitative Analysis)

Robust Surge in Operating Revenue and Core Profit:In the first quarter of 2026, the group (including the post-restructuring entity) achieved an operating revenue of RMB 16.232 billion, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 58.91%. Excluding the one-time accounting impact of negative goodwill from previous mergers, the net profit attributable to the parent company’s owners after deducting non-recurring gains and losses reached RMB 5.711 billion, a year-on-year surge of 73.43%, indicating that core operations are on a high-speed growth trajectory.
Asset and Scale Expansion:As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, total assets steadily climbed to RMB 2.26 trillion, an increase of 6.88% from the end of the previous year. Equity attributable to the parent company’s owners reached RMB 336.425 billion (a 1.82% increase from the previous year-end), securing the group’s position at the very top tier of Chinese peers.
Growth Structure by Business Segment:
- Brokerage Business: Net fee and commission income reached RMB 4.727 billion, up 78.23% year-on-year, driven by active stock and fund trading volumes and an expanded market share following the merger.
- Net Interest Income: Reached RMB 1.760 billion, achieving a significant year-on-year more than doubling increase of 153.74%, primarily driven by growth in margin financing, securities lending, and financial leasing scales.
- Asset Management Business: Net fee income reached RMB 0.176 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50.50%.

Next Quarter Outlook (Quantitative and Strategic Analysis)

Accelerated Subsidiary Integration and Cost-Optimization Synergies:Following board resolutions approving the substantive mergers of alternative investment subsidiaries (Guojun Zhengyu and Haitong Innovation) and private equity subsidiaries (Haitong Kaiyuan and Guojun Capital), the next quarter will enter a realization period for operational cost reduction and economies of scale, with the market anticipating further optimized expense ratios.
Improvement in Institutionalization and Derivatives Revenue:Building upon the first quarter’s gains in fair value changes (such as derivative financial instruments swinging from losses to a gain of RMB 4.485 billion), the next quarter will continue to deepen non-directional investment transformation, reducing the impact of standalone market volatility on overall earnings.
Full-Year Profit Forecast:Synthesizing institutional broker estimates, as the integration synergies from the Haitong Securities restructuring progressively manifest in subsequent quarters, full-year net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to land between RMB 28.3 billion and RMB 31.0 billion, representing a steady year-on-year growth rate of approximately 2% to 9%, while continuously strengthening ROE performance (the Q1 annualized non-GAAP weighted average ROE stood at 1.74%, up 0.05 percentage points year-on-year).